Flu cases in Thailand have retained an upward trajectory in 3Q24, following the trend from 2Q24, according to Tisco Securities. According to the Department of Disease Control (DCC), flu cases QTD are up 230% compared to the same period in 2023.
The patient mix remains concentrated in children under 15 years old. Tisco Securities expects the elevated number of flu cases to support OPD and IPD traffic in 3Q24 for all of our healthcare players.
Regarding the floods in Chiang Rai province, BDMS, BCH and RAM are still able to operate hospitals in the region though they have seen some impact on traffic. Nonetheless, impact should be minimal as they only have 1 site each in Chiang Rai vs. their total networks of 58, 16 and 19 hospitals, respectively.
Top picks among healthcare stocks for Tisco Securities are Bumrungrad Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: BH) for its solid 2H24 margin trend and Praram 9 Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: PR9) for its Thai/Non-Thai patient revenue growth and attractive valuation.
The elevated number of flu cases currently seen should have a positive impact on Thai healthcare providers, increasing both outpatient visits (OPD) and inpatient admissions (IPD). Hospitals with a significant focus on domestic patients, particularly those that have a greater cash patient mix, such as PR9, THG, and EKH, should have more pronounced topline benefits compared to hospitals with Social Security (SSO) patients (BCH, CHG, and RAM).
The flooding in Mai Sai, a town on the Thailand-Myanmar border in Chiang Rai province, since 9 September should have limited impact on topline growth due to the geographic diversification of the networks of affected hospital stocks (BDMS, BCH and RAM). Furthermore, Tisco Securities expects the flooding to be short-lived and note that some areas are already seeing water levels retreat. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Seree Supharatid, director of the Climate Change and Disaster Center of Rangsit University, expects it to take around a week for the waters to recede, assuming no more major storms during the period. Tisco Securities also highlight that seasonality impact should outweigh the softer traffic at affected sites.
