Krungsri Securities (KSS) highlighted the importance of overseeing the ongoing flood situation in Northern Thailand, with a particular focus on Chiang Mai province, as the water levels expanded in various areas. The rising water levels in the Ping River have sparked worries among residents in the Northern and Central regions, with concerns that it may escalate to the flood levels witnessed in 2011.
Following the inquiry with the National Hydroinformatics Data Center, KSS stated that water levels in 35 reservoirs across Thailand are currently at 73%, categorized as a medium level and deemed controllable.
However, in Northern Thailand, which has a total of 8 reservoirs, four of them are holding more than 80% of their capacity, with two exceeding 100%. Conversely, 4 reservoirs maintain water levels at a medium level or below 80%. The analyst suggests that while the impact appears localized, ongoing monitoring is crucial, especially over the next 1-2 weeks, with hopes that no further storms will exacerbate the situation.
KSS projects a potential -0.2% downside risk to Thailand’s 2024 GDP due to the current flood situation, with a low likelihood of reaching the severity seen in 2011. The anticipated impact is not expected to significantly affect the revenue of listed companies, as the retail sector’s revenue from Northern Thailand accounts for 3-10% of the total sales. Among companies, CRC and GLOBAL have a revenue contribution from their Northern region businesses at 17% and 25%, respectively.
As for the hotel sector, businesses have not yet experienced any adverse effects from the ongoing floods. Despite some travel challenges, there have been no indications of room cancellations.
Additionally, AWC generates 6% of its revenue from Chiang Mai, and CENTEL oversees one hotel, naming Centara Riverside Hotel Chiang Mai which has been minimally impacted as the company only accounts for revenue from managing the hotel. ERW manages three hotels under the Hop Inn brand in the area, all operating seamlessly. MINT runs the Anantara Chiang Mai resort, while SHR does not have any hotel operations in Chiang Mai.
