Kobsak Pootrakool, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO), revealed that the FETCO Investor Confidence Index (FETCO ICI) in October 2024 (conducted during 20-31 October 2024), which anticipated the market condition over the next three months, is at 160.66, maintaining in “very bullish” zone for two consecutive months. The government’s economic stimulus package is the most supportive factor, followed by policy rate cut decision by the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), and tourism recovery. However, confidence is undermined by inflation, international conflicts, and local political uncertainty, respectively.
Highlights of FETCO Investor Confidence Index surveyed in October 2024 are as follows.
- Overall FETCO Investor Confidence index for the next three months (January 2025) is in “very bullish” zone (160-200 of FETCO ICI Criterion) at 166.
- Confidence of retail, proprietary and institutional investors is in “bullish” zone while that of foreign investors is in “very bullish” zone.
- Most attractive sector is Tourism and Leisure (TOURISM).
- Least attractive sector to investors is Automotive (AUTO).
- Most influential factor driving the Thai stock market is the government’s economic stimulus measures.
- Most important factor impeding the Thai stock market is inflation.
The survey results in October 2024 show that confidence of retail investors is down 6 percent to 138.71, proprietary investors down 14.3 percent to 150.00, institutional investors steady at 140.00 and foreign investors down 10 percent to 180.00.
In the first half of October, SET Index moved in tight range before the benchmark responded positively after MPC’s rate cut by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent. However, profit-taking by foreign investors emerged as market anticipated on slower pace of interest rate reduction while uncertainty over U.S. president elections remains. At month-end, SET Index closed at 1,466.04, up 1.2 percent from the previous month with an average daily trading volume of THB 54,750 million. Foreign investors were net sellers of THB 27,968 million. Their net selling totaled THB 122,757 million year to date.
External factors to monitor include escalating conflicts in the Middle East, U.S. President election results on 5 November 2024 and post-election trade policy direction, which may cause fluctuation to global stock markets. Also, eyes are on China’s economic recovery direction following its bold stimulus packages. Domestic factors include support from tourism and export recovery, which is expected to boost the Thai economy, inflation trend, economic growth, and financial stability, which will impact the MPC’s rate decision in the upcoming meeting. In addition, focus is also on year-end buying spree on ThaiESG fund and Vayupak Fund as well as 3Q earnings results of listed companies, which are tipped to be positively in line with local economic growth.
