In the lead-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Kasikorn Securities saw four possible outcomes as follows:
- If Trump wins and gets a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, the red sweep would be negative for risk assets due to the escalation of the trade war.
- If Trump won and got a majority in either the Senate or the House of Representatives, it would be positive for risk assets due to the economic stimulus plan, a tax reduction, and new job creations.
- If Harris won and got a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, the blue sweep would be negative toward risk assets due to a surge in geopolitical conflict or the risk of escalation in the Middle East and European War.
- If Harris won and got a majority in either the Senate or the House of Representatives, it would be a slight positive for risk assets, due to Democrats maintaining the status quo.
Stocks that may be impacted by the election
If Trump does win and put more tariffs on Chinese exports, it may cause inflation to rise from increasing costs, interest rates may remain high, and the dollar would be strengthened.
The stocks that could benefit from the Trump presidency are the ones from the industrial complex group (AMATA), insurance company (TLI), and export group (DELTA, ITC and CPF).
If Harris wins instead, inflation may continue to shrink, the interest rate will go down, and the dollar may weaken.
The stocks that could benefit from the Harris presidency are the ones from the finance sector (MTC), power plant group (BGRIM), telecommunication group (ADVANC), and petrochemical group (PTTGC).
