Asia Plus Securities stated that, last Friday, the US capital markets saw a resurgence, climbing between 0.9% to 1.2%, while the 10-year US bond yield dropped to 4.52%. This shift came after the release of November’s PCE data, showing a year-on-year increase to 2.4%, up from 2.3% in the previous month. However, this figure fell below the market consensus estimate of 2.5%.
The CME’s FedWatch Tools indicated a heightened likelihood of the US Federal Reserve lowering its benchmark rates in March instead of the previously anticipated May meeting. The analyst suggested that if US inflation decelerates, it could potentially instill a more dovish outlook in the capital markets.
Furthermore, investors in the US markets were reassured as concerns eased regarding a government shutdown, following a Senate vote of 85 to 11 to pass the funding bill on December 20. This new act will provide funding for the US government at existing levels until March 14, offering assistance for hurricane recovery and other natural disasters as well as supporting farmers.
For the Thai market, Asia Plus Securities anticipated a positive outlook due to potential stimulus measures from the government, expected to be presented at the cabinet meeting on Tuesday. These measures encompass:
- The Easy E-Receipt initiative, effective from January 15 to February 28, 2025. This program aims to offer a tax reduction of up to THB 50,000, split into; 1) A maximum of THB 30,000 allocated for expenditures on general goods and services linked to tourism, including tours, car rentals, hotels, and dining establishments; and 2) THB 20,000-50,000 designated for purchases at SMEs and OTOP stores.
- The THB 10,000 cash handout scheme (Phase 2 – for 4 million elders), expecting to be distributed in cash prior to the Chinese New Year Festival 2025 (within January 2025).
Amid reduced worries about inflation and political issues externally and domestic factors influencing the economic rebound, the analyst views this trend favorably for AOT, ERW, BEM, CRC, BJC, and HMPRO.
