The Thai stock index saw a significant outflow in the morning session on the first trading day of 2025, exhibiting a decrease of 18.96 points or 1.35% to settle at 1,381.25 points. The decrease could be attributed to raising concerns from investors over the implementation of the 15% Global Minimum Tax (GMT) to Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) and the selloff by institutional investors due to the redemption of Long-Term Equity Fund (LTF).
The GMT policy, already adopted by over 100 countries, targets companies benefiting from Thailand’s Board of Investment (BOI) privileges, which result in effective tax rates below 15%. This change pertains to companies generating over 750 million euros in annual revenue (approximately 26 billion baht).
According to FSS International Investment Advisory Securities (FSSIA), for the electronics and food sectors within its coverage, companies facing a potential tax increase to the 15% GMT include DELTA, TU, and STA. CPF, however, will remain unaffected as it already pays taxes above the 15% threshold. Also, several countries already implemented tax rates of over 15%.
Currently, DELTA pays a mere 2% tax rate, primarily deriving its income base from Thailand. Despite having production bases in India and Slovakia, the taxable profit percentage is minimal. Therefore, an increase to a 15% tax rate could potentially reduce DELTA’s annual profits by 13%.
Meanwhile, Thai Union (TU) currently bears a tax rate of 7.6%, with foreign tax bases already exceeding the 15% rate. However, its Thai revenue base, benefiting from BOI incentives, might experience an impact. Should the tax increase to 15%, TU’s tax rate is projected to rise to 11.3%, potentially affecting its annual profits by approximately 5.7%.
In the meantime, it is speculated that the redemption of LTF could pressure institutional investors to take profit on stocks in their portfolio such as Advanced Info Service (ADVANC), GULF and INTUCH, which are stocks that saw significant gains in 2024. According to the data, there will be 68 billion baht in total available to redeem this year.
Amid traders selling off stocks on the first day of 2025, this could be an opportunity to accumulate these stocks, considering a huge upside available.
| Last Price | % Change Today | Previous Close | LSEG Consensus | % Upside | |
| SCGP | 19.4 | -1.02 % | 19.6 | 30.38 | 55.00 |
| GPSC | 37.25 | -2.61 % | 38.25 | 54 | 41.18 |
| BGRIM | 19.1 | -2.05 % | 19.5 | 26.28 | 34.77 |
| CPF | 23 | 0.88 % | 22.8 | 29.69 | 30.22 |
| TU | 12.8 | -1.54% | 13 | 16.83 | 29.46 |
| STA | 17.8 | -1.66 % | 18.1 | 23.19 | 28.12 |
| EGCO | 116 | -0.85 % | 117 | 144 | 23.08 |
| RATCH | 29.5 | -1.67 % | 30 | 35.8 | 19.33 |
| GULF | 57.5 | -3.36 % | 59.5 | 63.61 | 6.91 |
| ADVANC | 284 | 1.05 % | 287 | 297.97 | 3.82 |
| INTUCH | 94.5 | 2.58 % | 97 | 97.69 | 0.71 |
| DELTA | 140.5 | -7.87 % | 152.5 | 116.8 | -23.41 |
