Supply Chain Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo at TF Securities warned that Apple is losing its market share in China, with the shipment expected to drop at 6% year over year for the first half of 2025, despite the launch of its new product iPhone SE 4.
Although Apple stock dropped 2.4%, Kuo expected its market share to continue decreasing since the two new iPhone models Apple prepared for can only support eSIM, a SIM card that the Chinese market did not promote. He added that iPhone shipments in China dropped 10% to 12% last month despite the overall smartphone shipments remaining stable.
Kuo also mentions Apple Intelligent, stating that no evidence supports that the feature is driving hardware upgrades or services revenue. According to a supply chain survey he conducted, Apple Intelligence “has not boosted iPhone replacement demand.” He also added that cloud-based AI services are superior due to being advanced rapidly in subsequent months.
For 2024, Apple forecasts that the total shipments will reach 220 million units, while in 2025, it will be between 220 and 225 million. Both are lower than the market estimation, which is at 240 million or more.
