Liberator Securities stated in an analysis that PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited (SET: OR) is estimated to record a total profit of THB 2,489 million in 4Q24, which recovered from the previous quarter, and the same period a year ago according to low base.
The mobility group (services station) expected an oil sale at 7,049 million liters, a 9% increase from the previous quarter, with retail and commercial markets growing in the same direction. Furthermore, the average gross profit margin is forecasted to recover at THB 0.85 per liter, from THB 0.51 per liter in 3Q24, while there are losses in stock, only by THB 50 million.
The lifestyle group (food and beverage) has coffee sales increase to 103 million cups from 98 million cups in 3Q24 due to seasonal factors, EBITDA margin has also improved from the previous quarter due to cost from the closure of Texas Chicken.
The foreign group has oil sales stabilized from the previous quarter at 515 million liters, sales in Lao and Cambodia have improved from seasonal purchases, while Philippine sales have shrunk. Coffee sales have improved by 6% from last quarter, also due to seasonal buying.
Usually, 4Q24 would have more cost than other quarters, but since OR has taken control of the aforementioned group, thus reducing the cost down from the previous quarter, the special cost will widen THB 150 million (THB 500 million profit from the exchange rate, THB 50 million losses from stock, and THB 300 million losses from stock depreciation).
Nonetheless, the securities estimate a profit of THB 2.8 billion, recovered from THB 1.6 billion losses, and a strong recovery from a low base of THB 193 million a year ago.
However, while performance is recovering from seasonal factors and cost control, increasing competition in both service station groups and coffee shops has cost OR a significant market share, while raising coffee bean prices could also increase coffee costs, as coffee beans are 40% of the cost.
Currently, there is no accelerating factor that makes OR stock stand out, but it remains to be seen what strategy the company would use to regain market share, and whether the replacement of Texas Chicken restaurant would help the company or not.
