The share price of Osotspa Public Company Limited (SET: OSP) on Tuesday settled 7.80% lower at THB 18.90 per share. The lowest price during the session was THB 18.30 and the highest was THB 20.70, with a total trading value of THB 919.94 million.
Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) said in an analysis that OSP’s 4Q24 profit could miss the forecast, subsiding from the previous quarter and a slight improvement from last year. The effectiveness of the company’s THB 10 strategy to regain the market share remains to be observed.
Meanwhile, OSP’s market share in terms of value was 45% in 4Q24, a dip from 3Q24’s 45.4%, as such the securities company expects revenues from energy drinks to either stabilize or decline from the previous year, opposite to the total market value that still has an overhead, though some could be confuted from recovery in foreign revenue.
However, costs in 4Q24 could weigh down profits, due to costs from marketing, advertisement, FX loss from Myanmar business, and depreciation of European investment that will cost the company around THB 50-60 million.
At the end of 2024, OSP had a 45.8% market share, a slump from 46.6% in the year. The company plans to regain its 50% market share in 2025, with a 40th-anniversary campaign from February onward, such as the release of a yellow cap M-150 with a THB 10 price tag, targeting its traditional market with its classic size and taste. The company also plans to expand its market with new products, while also hiring a new presenter.
Despite that, Finansia’s researchers raise concerns over OSP’s strategy of bringing back its THB 10 energy drink, as it could cause cannibalization with its existing products including THB 12 M-Yellow (gold cap) and THB 10 M-Blue. If the company cannot accelerate its sales volume growth, the overall revenue from energy drinks may either stagnate or grow slower than forecast. OSP however sees the value of the energy drink market grow 2-3% from last year (market value in 2024 grew 6% from its previous year)
Nevertheless, both OSP and CBG will utilize the THB 10 strategy to gain market shares in 2025, intensifying the competition compared to 2025, and it could drive up costs for both companies.
