Maybank Securities (Thailand) (MST) expects Central Retail Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: CRC) to post a strong 4Q24 earnings with growth in SSSG extending into January 2025.
MST stated that it expects core 4Q24 profit (due 27 Feb) at THB2.78b, up 58% QoQ, due to seasonal impact but earnings should decline 4% YoY, caused by high base from one-off tax benefits from Italian business and deferred taxes for the Vietnam operation in 4Q23. However, EBT is likely to increase 4% YoY, underpinned by improving SSSG for the Thailand business to 2% from -1% in 4Q23 and -2% in 3Q24.
CRC SSSG in Jan 2025 increased to mid to high-single digits due to strong food SSSG, driven by the Tet holiday in Vietnam and Go Wholesale being counted in SSSG since the first store opened in 4Q23. CRC is likely to see more positive feedback from Easy e-receipt in Feb as the government stimulus campaign runs from 16 Jan to 28 Feb. CRC is trading at 21x FY25E P/E, 1 SD below its 5-year mean, while ROE should increase to 12.8% in Y25E.
