On Friday at 10:58 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Central Pattana Public Company Limited (SET: CPN) dropped by 5.26% or THB 2.75 to THB 49.50, with a trading value of THB 365.47 million.
DAOL Securities (Thailand) projected that CPN’s normalized profit for the fourth quarter of 2024 would reach THB 3.9 billion, reflecting a 2% year-on-year decline and a 5% quarter-on-quarter decrease, slightly below the analyst’s forecast of THB 4 billion. This was potentially influenced by an elevated SG&A-to-sale ratio, which exceeded expectations due to numerous event organizations held in multiple shopping malls operated by the company during various festive occasions.
Meanwhile, CPN’s core operations are projected to sustain their upward trajectory, as rental income is anticipated to hold steady at THB 10.6 billion, marking a 7% year-on-year increase and a 1% quarter-on-quarter rise, with more robust growth observed in the upcountry region compared to Bangkok. Moreover, the company’s interest expenses are expected to decrease by 13% quarter-on-quarter, due to loan repayments and the shift towards refinancing through debentures.
During the quarter, a one-time item worth THB -300 million impacted the company’s financials, leading to a net profit of THB 3.6 billion. This figure signifies a 9% year-on-year decrease and a 12% quarter-on-quarter decline.
DAOL Securities (Thailand) projected that CPN’s net profit for 2025 is expected to reach approximately THB 18 billion, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase. This growth is anticipated due to the launch of new malls at Dusit Central Park in the third quarter of 2025 and in Krabi province in October 2025, driving the transfer of condominiums and low-rise residences.
The profit forecast for the first quarter of 2025 is expected to demonstrate year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth, propelled by an increase in tourist arrivals and seasonally reduced marketing expenditures. The recent 3% decline in CPN’s stock price compared to the SET index over the past three months followed a lackluster outlook for 4Q24 earnings, both in terms of year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter performance.
Despite this decrease, the stock is still considered attractive compared to pre-pandemic levels, where it reached a peak of THB 80 per share in 2019. Currently, CPN’s valuation is trading at a 2025 estimated EV/EBITDA ratio of only 11x, equating to a deviation of -2.00 standard deviations below the 8-year average EBITDA level.
As a result, the analyst maintains a ‘BUY’ rating for CPN, establishing a target price of THB 72 per share for 2025.
