On Thursday at 10:29 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Krung Thai Bank Public Company Limited (SET: KTB) gained 1.67% or THB 0.40 to THB 24.40, with a trading value of THB 902.42 million.
DAOL Securities (Thailand) maintains a ‘BUY’ recommendation for KTB but has revised the target price to 27.50 baht per share. This follows the bank’s announcement of a 2024 dividend payout at 1.545 baht per share, exceeding the market’s expectation of 1.051 baht per share and the analyst’s estimate of 1.255 baht per share. The ex-dividend date (XD) is set for April 16, 2025.
The payment represents a dividend payout ratio of 49%—higher than the 33% seen in the previous year—and a dividend yield of 6.4%, considered top-tier within the banking sector with an average of around 6%. The higher dividend payout supports the increase in Return on Equity (ROE) to 10.30% from 10.00%, leading to a Price-to-Book Value (PBV) rise to 0.82x from 0.74x, thereby increasing the target price by around 3.00 baht.
The analyst upholds its forecast for KTB’s 2025 net profit estimate at 46 billion baht, representing a +6% year-on-year growth. The 1Q25 net profit outlook is also expected to surge, both YoY and QoQ, due to a continuous decrease in provisions. In addition, the overall Non-Performing Loans (NPL) situation shows improvement compared to the industry average, driven by a focus on lending to the government sector.
Similarly, Krungsri Securities (KSS) holds a positive outlook on KTB’s 2024 dividend announcement of 1.545 baht per share, which equates to a 6.4% dividend yield and a dividend payout ratio of 49% compared to 33% in the previous year. The payout was significantly higher than the analyst’s expectation of 0.94 baht per share. The XD date is on April 16, with payments on May 2, 2025.
The increase in KTB’s dividend payout ratio results in a ROE rise to 10.24% for 2025, from the previous estimate of 10.14%, and has prompted the analyst to adjust the target price to 27 baht from the original 24 baht per share.
KSS continues to recommend a ‘BUY’ rating and considers KTB a top-pick stock in the banking sector alongside KBANK (BUY, TP 178 baht) due to i) positive surprise on dividend, ii) anticipated benefits from persistent government expenditures in 1H25, iii) projected net profit growth for 2025 of +9% YoY, outperforming the sector’s +4% YoY growth.
