UBS Global Research wrote in a note, highlighting a potential benefit from Thailand’s Entertainment Complex Project that could uplift as much as 1.3% GDP in 2030-31 and a 8% annual growth in SET Index throughout the decade.
The Swiss firm noted that Thailand’s potential enactment of the Entertainment Complex Business Act is poised to reshape the nation’s economic landscape, projecting a substantial increase in GDP by 2031.
Should the legislation proceed successfully, Thailand could experience a GDP boost of around 1-1.3% through 2030-31, mainly driven by gross gaming revenues and a surge in tourism-related spending on accommodation, dining, and retail.
The impact unfolds through three distinct phases. Initially, the development phase from 2026 to 2029 is predicted to spur a 0.4-0.5% annual GDP growth, fueled by construction efforts and capital expenditures.
Following this, the operational phase in 2030-31 is expected to yield a 1.0% GDP spike, transitioning into the reinvention phase from 2032-35, which could contribute an additional 0.1-0.2% growth annually as Thailand continues to innovate and attract investment.
Despite the promising prospects, the market has yet to adjust valuations to reflect the potential economic upswing, given that the legislation remains in its nascent stages.
Investors are advised to remain vigilant as details around the bill’s implementation and project bidding unfold by the second half of 2025. A projected 36-42% increase (equating to 7-8% annually) in the SET index is possible by the end of the decade if this economic transformation takes root.
Several sectors are poised to benefit significantly from this legislative move. Financials, consumer and tourism industries, along with property markets, stand out as likely winners.Within these, stocks such as KBANK, SAWAD, CPALL, CRC, AOT, CENTEL, AWC, and CPN are expected to reap advantages, with Airports of Thailand (SET: AOT) being especially noteworthy for its potential to capitalize on this burgeoning opportunity.
