Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) noted that, in 4Q24, Sansiri Public Company Limited (SET: SIRI)’s net profit reached THB 1.3 billion, marking an 18% decline year-over-year but showing a 1% rise quarter-over-quarter. The core profit, excluding gains from land sales to joint ventures, was THB 1.2 billion, down 26% YoY and 16% QoQ, aligning with both KKPS’s and market expectations.
The company recognized THB 9.1 billion in residential revenue, comprising 70% from landed properties and 30% from condos, representing an 8% decline YoY but a 10% increase QoQ, fueled by strong landed property sales. The residential gross profit margin stood at 27.7%, reflecting a 7.4% YoY and 3.4% QoQ drop due to exceptionally high gross margins in 4Q23 and competitive pricing pressures.
Selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) accounted for 21.1% of revenue, an improvement of 0.4% YoY. Joint venture condo equity income soared by 300% YoY to THB 387 million, although it dropped 6% QoQ.
In 2024, SIRI achieved 8% growth in presales, totaling THB 40.8 billion, outperforming the -12% average among the top ten listed developers. Despite a 38% contraction in new launch values, strong brand recognition bolstered presales performance. Within the top ten developers, SIRI’s presales market share grew by 3.2% to 17.1% for 2024, with landed properties up 5.0% YoY to 19.4% and condos rising 0.9% YoY to 14.0%.
For future prospects, SIRI has planned new launches valued at THB 52 billion, with 61% in landed properties and 39% in condos, marking a 16% YoY increase following a launch normalization in 2024. The company targets a 13% increase in presales, amounting to THB 46 billion, driven by 20% growth in landed property sales, while condo sales are expected to remain stable.
KKPS anticipates that SIRI is poised to meet its condo presales goals, while also expecting potential downsides for landed property presales. As a result, the analyst initially predicts a low to mid-single-digit downside risk for SIRI’s presales, with a possibility for high-single-digit growth by 2025. The company aims for THB 46 billion in total transfers, including THB 37 billion from owned projects and THB 9 billion from joint venture condos, though KKPS’s model is slightly more cautious by 5%.
As 4Q24 performance was in line with KKPS’s expectations, SIRI saw its net gearing ratio dip to a three-year low of 1.50x by year-end 2024, improving from 1.63x at the end of the third quarter. The analyst favors SIRI due to its potential to capture a larger presales market share amid the consolidation of Thailand’s real estate market and enhancements in efficiency.
KKPS projects SIRI’s net profit to reach THB 5.15 billion in 2025, THB 5.37 billion in 2026, and THB 5.71 billion in 2027, maintaining a ‘Buy’ recommendation with a target price of THB 2.05 per share.
