The Thai stock market index opened at 1,165.46 points, down by 11.98 points or 1.02% on Tuesday, March 11, 2025. The decline was due to negative sentiment driven by apprehensions about a potential recession in the U.S. economy due to policies implemented by the U.S. President Donald Trump, particularly tax policies. This was the lowest level since April 2020.
According to Maybank Securities (Thailand), the Thai stock market is expected to see a pause in line with global market trends due to concerns about a possible U.S. economic recession. This stems from President Trump’s tax policies and budget cuts, leading investors to adopt a Risk-Off stance.
The decrease in U.S. 10-year government bond yields reflects significant market Risk-Off sentiments. This may result in a market consolidation across regional markets, including the Thai stock market. However, the Thai stock market is anticipated to decline less than other regional markets due to its previous deeper drop. Moreover, the Thai market structure, which consists of more Value Stocks than Growth Stocks, might result in a relatively lower decline when adjustments occur.
Meanwhile, AIRA Securities noted that the stock market still faces concerns over the weakening U.S. economy, particularly following the February Nonfarm Payroll report showing an increase of just 151,000 jobs, which was below market expectations. Consequently, the SET Index is projected to drop below the 1,200 level but is still trading at a Forward P/E ratio of approximately 12.4 times.
