Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has published analytic papers on Bumrungrad Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: BH) and Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited (SET: BDMS), two major players in Thai hospital sector, expecting to see solid growth from both companies this year.
Bumrungrad Hospital
- Rating: Buy
- Price Objective: 240.00 THB
Despite a deceleration in growth in 2024 from a high revenue base in 2023—37% above 2019 levels with international revenue up 39% and domestic up 34%—Bumrungrad Hospital is expected to sustain healthy earnings.
Changes in Kuwait’s government policies have led to a 1% drop in international revenue year-over-year in 2024, while domestic revenue grew by 5%. This weakening trend is anticipated to continue into the first half of 2025 as Kuwait’s contributions diminish following a marked reduction beginning February 2024. However, growth is expected to rebound in the second half of 2025, potentially boosted by new markets such as Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, which could pose an upside risk to projections. Despite top-line challenges, robust margins should keep earnings stable. KKPS revised its price objective down from 295 THB to 240 THB to reflect a higher discount rate of 7.7%, acknowledging the market’s more cautious sentiment, while maintaining a Buy recommendation.
Bangkok Dusit Medical Services
- Rating: Neutral
- Price Objective: 27.00 THB
As the largest private hospital network, Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS) is poised for continued solid growth. However, recent management insights suggest achieving double-digit growth rates will be challenging due to an already large scale and Thailand’s subdued macroeconomic environment.
Revenue growth is projected to improve from 2024, yet it’s expected to normalize at a 7-9% rate, compared to previous forecasts of 10%. This adjustment accounts partially for the introduction of an insurance co-payment policy, estimated to reduce BDMS’s revenue by 1-2%. In response, KKPS has adjusted the price objective from 33.50 THB to 27 THB, driven by lower projections and a revised discount rate of 7.5% to mirror the market’s heightened caution. The Neutral rating remains unchanged.
