The once stalwart optimism among investors is faltering, and one of Wall Street’s notable bulls has adjusted his outlook accordingly. On Thursday, Yardeni Research, a highly esteemed independent research firm known for its bullish stance on U.S. equities, revised its “best case” target for the S&P 500 in 2025 from 7000 to 6400.
This revision follows one of the stock market’s most challenging months in the past two years. The S&P 500, which soared to a peak of 6144 on February 19, has plummeted 9.4% since then. Thursday’s trading session saw the index slip further by 62 points, or around 1%, settling at 5539.
Despite the downgrade, Yardeni’s forecast remains on the optimistic side, implying that the S&P 500 will recover from its current 5% year-to-date decline and end 2025 up by 8% from January’s start. However, this outlook is notably less upbeat than the previous projection of an 18% annual rise. Historically, the S&P 500 has averaged a 10% annual growth since 1926.
Additionally, Yardeni also cut its 2026 S&P 500 target to 7,200 from 8,000.
In a related move, David Kostin of Goldman Sachs also curtailed his 2025 target for the S&P 500, lowering it to 6200 from 6500. Kostin cited factors such as anticipated slower economic growth, increased tariff levels, and heightened uncertainty as reasons for the revised expectations.
