Bualuang Securities has weighed in on the stock market implications of the recent earthquake on March 28, 2568, concluding that although the overall market impact will be minimal, some sectors could feel more significant pressures.
BLS noted that real estate may face challenges, particularly companies with a large share in the condominium market such as ANAN, NOBLE, and ORI, due to concerns about building integrity and potential cost hikes. Conversely, those like LH and SIRI, with a focus on low-rise developments, might benefit from increased demand in that category.
The tourism sector also could see a dip, as safety concerns weigh on tourist numbers, though Bualuang Securities does not anticipate substantial cancellations in the near term. Increased claims costs are expected to burden the insurance sector. Retail and transportation industries, including firms managing department stores like CPN and public transit systems BTS and MRT, may encounter brief service interruptions, but BLS expects these to recover quickly with insurance buffers in place.
On a positive note, companies involved in construction materials are likely to reap benefits due to the heightened need for supplies. Bualuang Securities highlights entities like SCCC and DCC as poised to meet this increased demand. Similarly, retail firms specializing in construction materials and home repair products, such as HMPRO and GLOBAL, are positioned to capitalize on the surge in home repairs and appliance replacements.
Reflecting on historical precedents, Bualuang Securities analyzed market responses to past catastrophic events, including the August 2015 Erawan Shrine bombing and the December 2004 tsunami. Typically, they observed an average dip of 2.2% in the SET Index on the initial trading day post-event, with the market generally bottoming out within the first week before stabilizing and recovering. For this earthquake, BLS foresees a similar pattern, predicting an initial drop in the SET Index for the first few days, followed by potential recovery contingent on economic fundamentals.
