Trinity Securities forecasts that the Thai stock market will likely move sideways in 2Q25, with a potential to outperform global markets due to its current low valuation across nearly all metrics.
The support level is initially assessed at 1,160 points, marking a previous low point. In a worst-case scenario, the index could dip to 1,100 points, a level aligning with a forward price-to-book value (PBV) ratio of 1.07 times, comparable to the intraday lows experienced during the COVID-19 crisis.
Conversely, the initial resistance level is set at 1,230 points, based on a conservative PE Model approach by Trinity Securities. In a best-case scenario, resistance could rise to 1,320 points, in line with the base case scenario using the PE Model.
In this environment of uncertain growth prospects, investors are likely to rotate funds away from high-growth stocks towards undervalued and low-volatility stocks. A mid-cycle interest rate cut is anticipated, but it may not benefit growth stocks as much as it does at the start of a rate-cut cycle or the final stage when balance sheet expansions typically occur.
Industries traditionally outperforming the Thai market in Q2 include energy, food, and healthcare. When considering all factors, the standout stocks for Q2/2025 include Bangchak Corporation PCL (SET: BCP), Thai Oil OCL (SET: TOP), PTT Global Chemical PCL (SET: PTTGC), Global Power Synergy PCL (SET: GPSC), Charoen Pokphand Foods PCL (SET: CPF), Bangkok Dusit Medical Services PCL (SET: BDMS), Bumrungrad Hospital PCL (SET: BH), Thanachart Capital PCL (SET: TCAP), the 3BB Internet Infrastructure Fund (3BBIF), and the LH Hotel Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust (LHHOTEL).
