CGS International Securities (Thailand) (CGSI) noted that the SET Index is expected to be volatile on Wednesday, influenced by movements in the U.S. stock markets. The index is projected to fluctuate between 1,155-1,180 points due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. President Trump’s plans on import tariffs and reciprocal tariffs, with more clarity expected on April 3 at 03:00 Bangkok time.
Thailand ranks 11th in nations with the largest trade surplus with the U.S. in 2024, raising the likelihood that these U.S. measures will impact the Southeast Asia country. This could particularly affect the domestic manufacturing and consumption sectors, as well as low- to middle-income groups.
The risk of Thailand facing U.S. import tariffs, coupled with recent earthquake damage, has led to a revised GDP growth projection for 2025 from the analyst, now at 2.3% year-on-year, down from the previously expected 2.5%. Additionally, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) is expected to respond to such circumstances by cutting interest rates twice, totaling 50 basis points in 2025, to stimulate the economy.
The next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting is scheduled for April 30, amidst domestic inflation pressures from government populist measures. These include a decision by the cabinet to reduce electricity prices to 3.99 baht/unit from May to August 2025 and weakened oil demand due to global trade war impacts.
As a result, CGSI recommends traders to invest in safe stocks and those with high returns amid SET index volatility, driven by both domestic factors (like potential interest rate cuts by the BOT and a nationwide minimum wage increase to 400 baht per day under discussion in early April) and international issues (like trade policies).
Other notable key points:
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) announced the securities list for the first half of 2025. For SET50, VGI and GULF are included, while INTUCH and GULFI are excluded. For SET100, ROJNA and GULF are included, with INTUCH and GULFI removed.
GULF will resume trading on April 3 after GULFI and INTUCH are delisted, effective April 1, 2025.
Moreover, there are reports that the House President could potentially add the draft Entertainment Complex Bill to the parliamentary agenda tomorrow (April 3).
Recommended stocks:
CPALL denied rumors of participation in a management buyout (MBO) of 7&i Holdings in Japan, clearing previous overhangs. This maintains CPALL’s valuation appeal.
BDMS is recommended as a defensive stock amid pressures from domestic and international factors, including uncertainties over U.S. tariff policies.
