KGI Securities (KGI) wrote in a note following the release of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, stating that the 36% imposed on Thailand was significantly higher than consensus expectation of 10-15%. Still, the firm added that it is waiting for the product list, which has yet to be published.
The Thai exports sector, notably in electronics companies like DELTA, HANA, and KCE, along with selected food and beverage firms such as ITC, TU, and SAPPE, is poised to experience adverse effects, according to KGI.
Furthermore, energy and packaging sectors, represented by companies like PTTEP and SCGP, are expected to feel the impact as global economic forecasts tilt toward potential decline, possibly dampening crude oil demand. Adding to the mix, the industrial estate sector, including AMATA and WHA, faces a wave of negative sentiment as investors grapple with escalating uncertainties.
Despite this, KGI viewed today’s tariff announcement as a maximum threshold, with potential bilateral negotiations on the horizon. Such talks could potentially lower tariffs to more palatable levels. Absent these negotiations, KGI’s economists are considering revising the 2025 export growth prediction down, while also raising concerns about a similar downward revision for Thailand’s GDP forecast.
