Goldman Sachs anticipates a much lower crude oil prices for 2025 and 2026 following a slower demand and higher-than-expected OPEC supply.
The American investment bank stated that by December 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices will settle at $62 and $58 per barrel, respectively, with a further drop to $55 and $51 by the end of 2026.
These predictions are based on two underlying assumptions: first, the U.S. economy will sidestep a recession thanks to a significant reduction in tariffs anticipated to be enacted on April 9. Second, oil output from eight OPEC+ nations is expected to increase gradually, featuring two additional boosts of 130,000 to 140,000 barrels during June and July of the same year.
Conversely, in its note dated April 7, the bank warned that should a typical U.S. recession materialize alongside their standard OPEC scenario, Brent prices are projected to decline to $58 by December 2025 and dip further to $50 by December 2026.
Goldman Sachs also postulated that oil prices might surpass their established forecast if there is a significant reversal in tariff policies. Nevertheless, the bank lowered its average annual price projections for Brent and WTI crude oils for 2026 on Monday, citing an escalation in recession risks coupled with the potential for a higher supply from OPEC+ than initially expected.
As U.S. President Donald Trump intensified tariff threats against China on the same day and the European Union unveiled plans to impose retaliatory tariffs, apprehensions about an extended trade war—and its potential to push the global economy toward a recession—have increased.
In a scenario featuring a global economic slowdown, with the OPEC baseline unchanged, Goldman predicts Brent would decrease to $54 by the end of 2025 and to $45 by late 2026. In a more severe and less predictable scenario where both a global economic downturn and a complete reversal of OPEC+ production cuts occur, Brent prices could plummet to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.
