On Wednesday at 10:53 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company Limited (SET: CPF) jumped by 6.76% or THB 1.50 to THB 23.70, with a trading value of THB 287.42 million.
Phillip Securities (Thailand) gives a ‘Buy’ recommendation for CPF, setting a baseline target price of THB 29.50 for 2025. The company is expected to report a net profit of THB 4,569 million for 1Q25, a 296.6% increase from the same period last year, which had a net profit of THB 1,152 million. The anticipated figure also represents a 9.5% rise from the previous quarter’s net profit of THB 4,173 million.
Sales in 1Q25 are anticipated to reach THB 143.75 billion, up 2.7% year-over-year but down 3.2% from the previous quarter due to seasonal trends, as sales typically decrease in the first quarter compared to the last quarter of the previous year. The analyst expects CPF’s gross margin of 15.5-20%, with SG&A to sales ratio at 8.9%.
In March 2025, pork prices in Thailand rose to THB 86 per kilogram, an increase of 13.2% from the beginning of the year when it was 76 THB per kilogram. Prices are expected to remain above this level in the second half of 2025. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s pork prices in January stabilized at 61,850 VND per kilogram, surpassing the average price in the second half of 2024, which was 61,000 VND per kilogram.
As corn and soybean meal prices are currently on a downward trajectory, the analyst anticipates that the elevated pork prices in Thailand and Vietnam, alongside reduced animal feed costs, will sustain the gross profit margin at approximately 15.5%, consistent with the fourth quarter of 2024.
Similarly, InnovestX Securities maintains an ‘Outperform’ rating for CFP, citing the company’s strong fundamentals and the potential to outperform the overall market. The analyst projects total sales in 2025 at THB 635.10 billion, an increase from THB 580.74 billion last year, and net profit in 2025 at THB 24.08 billion, up from THB 19.55 billion in 2024.
The analyst set a 2025 target price for CPF at THB 30 per share, evaluated using the Sum of the Parts (SOTP) method, which includes THB 11 from CPF’s core business, encompassing animal feed, farming, and food businesses (assumed price-to-earnings ratio of 8-12 times). An additional 19 THB comes from its holdings in CP All Public Company Limited (SET: CPALL) and CP Axtra Public Company Limited (SET: CPAXT).
During the first quarter of 2025, CPF’s normalized profit is predicted at approximately THB 6.5 billion, significantly higher than 1Q24’s figure of THB 532 million, and about a 10% growth from the previous quarter. This is supported by improved pork prices in Vietnam and Thailand amid low animal feed costs.
CPF faces limited direct impact from U.S. President Donald Trump’s 36% import tax hike on Thai goods, as the company’s U.S. exports, primarily shrimp products, account for only 0.3% of total revenue. However, the company might benefit indirectly if the Thai government negotiates lower-priced animal feed imports from the U.S.
