As per a report by FSS International Investment Advisory (FSSIA), the recovery of meat prices in Thailand and Vietnam have exceeded expectations year-to-date, buoyed by tighter supplies triggered by disease outbreaks and flooding late last year.
Average swine prices in Thailand have soared 19% from a year ago to THB 80-82 per kilogram, while prices in Vietnam climbed 22% to VND 65,000 per kilogram. In contrast, chicken prices in Thailand have held steady at about THB 40 per kilogram, and swine prices in China continue to lag behind initial projections.
Reflecting these trends, the analyst has adjusted the 2025 price assumptions, raising forecasts for Thai swine by 7% while lowering expectations for Chinese swine by 3%. The outlook for key input costs has shifted as well; soybean meal price assumptions have been revised down by 18%, whereas corn is now forecast 5% higher.
These changes have prompted a significant upgrade to the sector’s 2025 earnings projections, with net profit now anticipated to grow by 16% year-on-year—45% higher than prior forecasts. On a year-on-year basis, leading the gains are Betagro Public Company Limited (SET: BTG), with an expected 62% jump in profit, followed by Thaifoods Group Public Company Limited (SET: TFG) at 33%, and Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company Limited (SET: CPF) at 12%. Meanwhile, estimates for GFPT Public Company Limited (SET: GFPT) remain unchanged at a projected 24% decrease as there is no strong price catalyst for chicken in 2025 compared to swine.
FSSIA noted that recent U.S. tariff increases have limited direct impact on the region’s meat industry, as the U.S. is neither a major market nor supplier for Thai meats. However, as Thai-U.S. trade negotiations continue, potential increases in U.S. agricultural imports could affect domestic markets—positively if they involve feed grains like corn or soybean meal, but negatively if they include pork.
Still, the risk of U.S. pork impacting Thai markets remains low, given strict domestic bans on ractopamine, a feed additive common in U.S. pork production, and robust opposition from local producers. Moreover, the Thai government recently announced it would refrain from importing pork or offal, further easing concerns.
Looking ahead, with meat prices expected to remain supported and sector profits on track for strong growth through the first half of 2025, the analyst maintains a bullish stance on major industry players.
FSSIA flagged BTG as the sector’s most attractive stock, thanks to its strong projected profit growth in 2025, solid financial position, and recent recognition in the SET ESG Index with a top AAA rating. BTG’s shares have fallen behind the sector in recent performance, offering potential for recovery, and its stock is currently valued below its historical average.
As a result, with this robust sector backdrop, the analyst gives ‘BUY’ recommendations for BTG, TFG, CPF, and GFPT.
