The market has seen stocks of companies doing business in Myanmar having either mute or negative movements in stock prices the past month as slower demand and consumption due to weak economic environment and unrest in the military-led country.
Despite the aforementioned facts, one of the recent causes for the plummet in share prices is due to the refuge of young Burmese men in fright of the enforced military conscription, a law that had been dormant since 2010. The law was enacted on February 10, 2024. Neighbouring countries like Thailand have seen an increase in immigrants from Myanmar as of late.
The enforcement was so outrageous that General Guan Maw, a leader of the Kachin Independence Organization, said if the coup in 2021 was the beginning of the end, this law enforced in February is the end of the end.
The junta government is said to be in desperate need of manpower to solidify its military might amid the considerable depletion of its troops due to the damage from the resistance group, according to several news reports.
Slow global demand and the unrest surely impact consumption in the country, while a lack of young workers could lead to a slower production and a drop in utilization rate for those that have factories and power plants in Myanmar.
Several Thai companies with businesses related to Myanmar were underperforming the market in the past month, partly due to weak 4Q23 and 2023 earnings, but concerns for the unrest and the development of the Junta’s law enforcement are inevitable.
Energy drink and beverage companies like Carabao Group Public Company Limited (SET: CBG) reported weaker earnings while also having an underperforming performance by -9.74% vs -0.18% by SET Index in the past month (as of 29 Feb. 2024).
Osotspa Public Company Limited (SET: OSP), though reported profit growth in 2023, the actual figure missed expectations and 4Q23 earnings also missed the street forecast badly. The share price fell by 3.79% in the past 30 days.
Meanwhile, Mega Lifesciences Public Company Limited (SET: MEGA) saw its share price drop by 2.35%.
There are also a group of companies investing in a power plant in Myanmar. Minbu Power Plant comprises Scan Inter Public Company Limited (SET: SCN), Meta Corporation Public Company Limited (mai: META) and East Coast Furnitech Public Company Limited (mai: ECF) as the investor in a joint venture agreement.
The share price of SCN, a SET Index listed company, plunged by a whopping 25.57% in the past month. Meanwhile, META and ECF fell 15% and 2%, respectively, compared to the Market of Alternative Investment Index (mai) that dropped by 1.09% in a month.
Sales and production performance could continue to plummet if things escalate and get uglier, not to mention slower consumption as economic activities die down. A stalemate could also result in an unresolved ending. At this rate, the current situation does not seem to favour anyone at all.
