Donald Trump could win the 2024 Presidential Election in a landslide after surviving the assassination on July 13, 2024, at a campaign rally near Butler, Pennsylvania, according to several analysts, mirroring the attempted assassination of former president Ronald Reagan.
Chief Investment Officer at Vantage Point Asset Management in Singapore, Nick Ferres, analyzed in a report that the upcoming election is likely to result in a significant victory for Trump. He referred to polls indicating a surge in popularity for Reagan following an assassination attempt he survived in 1981.
Data from the American Presidency Project at the University of California Santa Barbara reveals that Reagan’s approval ratings, which were already on the rise in the early months of his presidency, spiked by an additional 7 percentage points in the first poll conducted post the attempt. However, this increase was short-lived and declined over the next three months.
A Portfolio Manager at Eastspring Investments in Singapore believes that the recent shooting incident could enhance Trump’s backing and further amplify the positive momentum he gained following the presidential debates two weeks ago. Trump, similar to Reagan, has shown resilience in the face of the assassination attempt. He confirmed on Sunday that he will not alter his travel plans for the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, commencing on Monday.
Market experts anticipate a more aggressive trade policy, reduced regulations, and relaxed climate change policies under Trump’s governance. They also predict an extension of expiring corporate and personal tax reductions in the upcoming year.
While there are similarities in the responses to the assassination attempts between Trump and Reagan, it is crucial to note that Trump is navigating a distinctly different political landscape. Reagan’s landslide victory was influenced by various factors, including Mondale’s unpopular foreign policy stance contrasted with Reagan’s effective problem-solving strategies during his presidency, which allayed fears of nuclear conflict. For example, Walter Mondale, the Democratic contender, focused on raising taxes to address deficits, while Reagan assured the public that he had no intentions to raise or lower taxes as part of his plans.
Mr. Anusorn Thamjai, Director of the Digital Economy Research Center International investment and trade University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and member of the audit committee Bank of Thailand, stated that the recent attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump has not yet had any significant impact on the value of the dollar or financial markets at present.
There have been no immediate effects on investments and the economy in the short term. However, it is important to monitor whether further political unrest will arise during the campaigning for the presidential election.
Following a change in leadership through a democratic election, there may be questions on the smooth transition of governance in the country. If any disruptions occur during or after the election, there could be implications for both domestic and international financial markets.
The aforementioned political risks may have implications for the United States economy, affecting investments and potentially influencing the country’s economic and political relations with other nations. These repercussions could further extend to impact the economies of various countries through changes in international trade policies set forth by the United States.
According to the poll made by abcNews, Trump is leading in the race with 42.3%, compared to Biden’s 40.4% as of July 14, 2024.
