On Thursday, European Union leaders plan to endorse significant increases in defence spending and pledge continued support for Ukraine, amid growing unease following former U.S. President Donald Trump’s suspension of military aid to Kyiv.
The special summit in Brussels, attended by leaders of the EU’s 27 countries and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, underscores Europe’s urgency to bolster its own security infrastructure, as reliance on U.S. protection appears uncertain.
The summit arrives at a critical time, as the EU grapples with fears that a resurgent Russia, emboldened by its actions in Ukraine, might target an EU member state next.
This anxiety is fueled by Trump’s shift towards a more conciliatory stance with Moscow, deviating from traditional U.S. support for Ukraine, and his insistence that Europe should take greater responsibility for its defense.
French President Emmanuel Macron, reflecting on the precarious security landscape, hinted at extending France’s nuclear deterrence to cover European allies, if U.S. support wanes.
In a parallel move, Germany’s prospective coalition parties have agreed to ease borrowing restrictions, paving the way for substantial hikes in defense expenditure.
The European Commission has also launched plans to potentially mobilize up to EUR 800 billion for defense, including borrowing EUR 150 billion to support EU governments.
While EU leaders are expected to broadly support these proposals and move swiftly towards legislative action, specific agreements remain complex.
On the Ukraine front, the summit seeks to reassure Zelenskiy of Europe’s backing following his confrontation with Trump. Nevertheless, consensus on specific military aid commitments, suggested to reach EUR 20 billion in 2025, remains elusive.
Challenges arise over equitable contributions by EU members, with tensions between Nordic and Baltic states and larger nations like France, Italy, and Spain over perceived imbalances in support.
However, the summit’s unity could be tested by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
Orban, known for his alignment with Trump and cordial ties with Moscow, has voiced “strategic differences” with the EU’s approach to Ukraine, potentially withholding his endorsement of the summit’s conclusions.
With these pivotal discussions underway, the EU aims to cement a collective strategy that ensures a resilient European defense posture and continued solidarity with Ukraine.
