The political stage in Thailand prepares for a significant censure debate set for March 24-25, as the opposition gears up to challenge Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s leadership. The opposition, led by the People’s Party previously known as Move Forward, is particularly focused on how family ties, notably those with former Prime Minister Thaksin, might be influencing her government’s decisions. Despite the anticipated pressures from the debate, CLSA predicts that Paetongtarn will secure the necessary confidence vote from coalition parties on March 26.
The coalition government, consisting of 314 out of 493 MPs, appears ready to back Prime Minister Paetongtarn in the upcoming confidence vote. This expected outcome comes despite ongoing discord between Pheu Thai and Bhumjai Thai parties, which CLSA does not foresee leading to a coalition rupture.
Post-debate, a cabinet reshuffle is anticipated as a measure to reinforce governmental stability. Simultaneously, CLSA highlights potential suspensions or bans facing 25 People’s Party MPs due to their controversial proposal to amend Section 112 of the Criminal Code, also known as the lese majeste law. This case’s verdict, likely by Q2 2025, could reduce the MPs count in the parliament to 468, necessitating a new majority threshold of 234 MPs for government formation.
Additionally, CLSA noted that frustration within Pheu Thai persists over Bhumjai Thai’s resistance to certain policies, potentially prompting considerations to exclude them from the coalition. Bhumjai Thai holds a critical 70 MP seats, which the Pheu Thai party can afford to lose as it would cut the government majority to 244 MPs. It is still above the 234 threshold, under the assumption that 25 MPs from the People’s Party are ousted.
